hit by 55 hurricanes since 1851, north carolina is the third most hurricane-prone state in the u.s. the devastating impacts of hurricanes such as florence, matthew, and now helene have made the effects of climate change in the tar heel state more pronounced than ever. 

hurricane helene, which struck north carolina last week, left entire towns submerged, displaced hundreds of people, and caused billions of dollars of damage. with climate change intensifying rainfall events and causing sea levels to rise, north carolinians confront an urgent question: how can we protect our communities from future floods?

the role of flood maps in preparation

flood maps are tools that help communities identify areas most at risk for flooding. these maps indicate different flood zones, such as high-risk areas that may require flood insurance, and include data such as base flood elevations (bfe) to predict potential water levels during major floods. however, despite their importance, many north carolinians – especially in rural underserved areas – struggle to access or fully understand these tools. 

one woman i spoke with, olivia green from kings mountain, shared her experience.

“i didn’t think we were at risk. our area never flooded before, so i never thought to look for flood maps or check any resources,” green said. 

even in flood-prone states like north carolina, many people assume that if they haven’t experienced flooding in the past, they are not at risk. but as storms grow in intensity, even areas once considered safe can become vulnerable to severe floods.

the uncertainty around floods is something that stuart pimm ph. d., a professor of conservation at duke university commented on.

“there are runs of good years and bad years. extremes [in weather events] are often worse than expected [..]. the chance of bad floods next year is higher because this year has been bad,” he said.

pimm suggested that communities must be ready for unpredictable and worsening flooding events in the years to come.

as climate risks rise, this disconnect between flood mapping resources and the communities they aim to protect is both individual and systemic. the challenge of flood preparedness raises larger questions: are the outreach efforts and tools aimed at informing people about flood risks reaching those who need them most? do people have access to flood maps? can information on maps be interpreted? 

flooding in north carolina: where do we go from here?

hurricane helene has made evident that flood preparedness in north carolina must improve – and that simply having flood maps available isn’t enough. to protect communities, these tools must be accessible, accurate, and better understood. 

ultimately, the responsibility of knowing one’s flood risk falls on multiple parties. federal agencies must provide the tools and ensure they’re accessible, but local governments also need to step up and ensure that these tools are being disseminated effectively. meanwhile, citizens must be proactive in seeking out information and taking steps to protect their homes and families.

in the wake of helene’s horrific destruction, north carolina faces a moment of reflection. whether it’s clearer mapping tools, better education, or stronger collaboration between agencies and residents, the state has an opportunity to re-evaluate how its communities prepare for extreme weather. the time to act is before the next flood arrives. 

public resources such as fema’s flood map service center , national flood hazard layer, and floodsmart.gov are places to start in understanding flood maps and personal property.

the flood didn’t just wash away homes; it washed away dreams. schools were destroyed, crops were ruined, and the vulnerability of our communities was laid bare. for years, the effects of climate change had been written off as a distant threat, a problem for the future. but as 27,000 schools lay in ruins and the catastrophic floods affected 33 million people across the country, the urgency of the crisis became undeniable.

amid the devastation, a new mission was born, not just to survive the floods, but to fight for a future that could withstand them. i was one of the volunteers who joined forces with the welfare association for a new generation (wang), a local organization in lasbela. wang is a youth-led nonprofit organization in balochistan, pakistan, dedicated to empowering communities and promoting sustainable development. focused on gender equality, environmental sustainability, and educational advancement, wang drives positive change through innovative projects and strategic partnerships.

by championing these causes, the organization plays a pivotal role in building a more equitable, resilient society in the region. our goal was simple yet overwhelming: to rescue, relieve, and rebuild. we organized fundraisers, secured donations, and distributed essential supplies like food, medicine, and shelter to those in desperate need. but it wasn’t just about material aid. we held engagement sessions with children, offering them a small sense of hope in the midst of chaos, reminding them that they hadn’t been forgotten.

the recovery process, however, revealed a deeper issue: the recurring cycle of poverty and loss. lasbela is a region where most families depend on agriculture and livestock for survival. a good harvest can mean the difference between sending a child to school or pulling them out to help at home. when floods wipe away crops, they also wipe away opportunities, pushing families further into poverty and children — especially girls — out of education.

as i worked with wang, the inequities of climate change became more apparent. though according to the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), pakistan contributes less than 1% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions,  it remains one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. the floodwaters were not just a natural disaster—they were the result of global systems that disproportionately harm countries like mine.

while rebuilding homes was critical, i realized that to break this cycle, we needed more than short-term solutions. in 2023, i was selected to participate in a climate adaptation bootcamp organized by the school of leadership foundation and unicef. this experience provided me with the tools and a grant to carry out a two-month research project titled “the impact of climate change-induced floods on girls’ primary education in lasbela.” over the course of my research, i visited flood-affected schools, gathered data, and met with local leaders to develop recommendations aimed at mitigating the impact of climate change on education.

what i found was heartbreaking but not surprising. many young girls had been pulled out of school permanently as families struggled to recover. in rural communities, education, especially for girls is often seen as a luxury, easily sacrificed in times of crisis. but education is key to breaking cycles of poverty and building resilience against climate disasters. without it, entire generations could be lost.

my research culminated in a series of policy recommendations, pushing for the integration of climate education in school curriculums and the need for more resilient infrastructure in vulnerable regions like lasbela. this experience opened my eyes to the larger systems at play, how gender, poverty, and climate are deeply intertwined — and solidified my commitment to fighting for climate justice on multiple fronts.

today, i continue my work, not just as a volunteer but as an advocate for long-term solutions. the flood taught me that while we cannot stop the waters from rising, we can build communities that are strong enough to withstand them. every effort, from rebuilding homes to rewriting policies, is a step toward a more resilient future.

but a closer look in the direction of black river next to the road reveals the remnants of what some residents call the “great vermont flood of 2023.” in july of last year, heavy rains inundated much of the state causing catastrophic flooding.

as of march of 2024, debris from dead trees are scattered everywhere; utility poles are leaning on their sides, bent low to the water on the verge of drowning. just beyond this road, a state park remains closed; pits of exposed soil caused by large volumes of runoff are lacking vegetation, despite their location being within vast stretches of forest. 

some community members in the surrounding towns seem to be at a similar state of recovery as route 131. 

chloe perry, a resident of wallingford, was left with a flooded home that was going to cost her $110,000 and nearly a year of labor to repair. the piles of debris were substantial enough for fema workers to say it was one of the worst-hit houses they’ve seen, according to perry – yet all she received in aid was a $250 check. 

perry, who also owns a bakery a few minutes from her home, is still recovering from those damages. “i got about two feet of water on the entire first floor of my home. so all my walls were ripped out, my floors were ripped out, [and] all my appliances died,” says perry. the $110,000 estimate in losses drawn up by her flood insurance company did not cover any private belongings.

to make matters worse, the high demand for contractors after the storm meant that perry had to take on much of the labor herself. thankfully, perry hopes to be done with the repairs in the coming weeks.

a few towns over in windsor, vermont, kimberley friesenhahn and her husband joseph experienced a sudden scare during the storm when nearly a dozen trees fell and struck her pig den in the backyard. miraculously, all the pigs lived.

however, the damage has had a significant impact on her plans for her farmstead. “ it was expensive because we weren’t able to salvage the fencing that we had for them, which meant we had to go purchase all new fencing… it definitely puts a stress on the budget,” she said.

the pigs, which were an integral part of her plan to develop a silvo-pasture, a pasture that integrates trees, across the multi-acre woods beyond her current farmstead, may no longer serve a purpose for the freisenhahns. “we just had to put all of those plans on hold… we just don’t feel comfortable allowing the animals in the forest,” she continued.

as climate patterns in vermont progress toward wetter springs and summers, the floods aren’t the only concern for the freisenhahns: more rain means less time out in the woods for the goats, as their hooves will be vulnerable to diseases if not kept dry. damper grounds also mean looser soil, which translates to greater chances of trees falling, as last july demonstrated. this poses serious risks of following through with their plans for the silvopasture. after last july, the friesenhahns decided to put a pause on their development plans for the farmstead.

liza welch, a friend of the freisenhahns and the owners of busyb goat farm and apiary in weathersfield, was met with the news that their usual supplier for hay was not able to produce any hay at all that summer. “as a farm, we have 53 animals. we usually have to source about 1600 bales of hay to get us through the winter,” welch explained. “when i do that, i have a couple of different sources of hay. and i actually had three of our sources reach out to me [last year] and tell me that they couldn’t fulfill the promise.”

to those that have dealt with similar repercussions from the flooding as perry or freisenhahn, the issue now lies in the future of vermont’s climate patterns. if such storms increase in frequency, it can only mean more trouble more often. “i own a bakery here. my kids go to school here. i can’t leave the area and there’s nothing else i can afford even within probably 200,000 of what i paid for my house,” says perry. “i get flood warnings now and it sends me into a whole panic.”

and that panic was only validated with another heavy storm in december 2023 that added salt to the open wound for many residents. for perry and her family, the second storm brought in another four feet of water into her basement. after the encounter with fema, perry has not applied for any more aid.

on the brighter side, communities have come together more than ever over these last nine months, which perry felt was important to emphasize. she highlighted the wallingford thrift shop, explaining that the shop has taken the lead in helping those who have lost personal goods from the storm. 

welch believes that such catastrophic events are only going to improve vermont’s resilience, saying “each time something like this happens, vermont has taken a stance to be stronger and get more productive and more precautious. we do our best with what we’ve got and we overcome.”

evanston, il – a team of northwestern university climate scientists teleport back in time with naturally preserved records they extract as cylindrical cores of lake sediment.

the sediment layers in the cores open the way to time travel through climate changes over the past 20,000 years. third-year ph.d. students bailey nash and aidan burdick analyze cellulose and carbonate materials, respectively, found in sediment over time to better understand how we can prepare for accelerating human-caused climate change now and moving forward.

after carefully extracting the sediment cores from lakes in greenland and the midwestern united states, the team brings them back to professor yarrow axford’s quaternary sediment laboratory on campus for the laborious analysis.

“this research is very iterative,” burdick said. “you do one thing, you learn something from it, you move on to the next, and eventually, you build a body of knowledge over time.”

burdick focuses his research on the midwest, looking at sediment deposits from lakes around the region. by building a record of illinois’s hydroclimate, his research will help serve illinois and midwest city officials by improving water resource management, among other applications.

“we can already see clear evidence of way more sediment being deposited after europeans arrived [in illinois], probably because of agriculture and things like that,” burdick said. “i’m using this core to try to understand lake chemistry in the context of carbonate materials. we can use the chemical variations in the minerals to see how the local hydroclimate has changed over time.”

while burdick is focused on the midwest and great lakes, nash noted that much of the team’s work takes them to the arctic, specifically in south greenland where deglaciation began around 15,000 years ago driven by rising air temperatures. this upcoming summer, nash will be visiting the community of narsaq to conduct her research.

“one of the primary questions that i’m trying to address through my ph.d. work is how arctic lakes respond [to climate change], especially in regard to their lake levels,” nash said. “so, did lake levels rise or fall during periods of past warmth? and what does that mean for arctic communities that rely on these similar arctic lakes today as a municipal water source?”

after extracting cellulose from ancient plant matter in the sediment, nash uses a mass spectrometer to analyze cellulose isotopes over time. cellulose is the most abundant biopolymer on earth, and the isotopic signature of cellulose that gets preserved in geologic materials can serve as a record of differing past climate conditions.

“these isotopic compositions can say a lot about whether lake level was higher or lower in the past,” nash said, “or if the environment was warmer or colder than it is today — those pieces of the climate story.”

it’s not well understood whether lake levels in the arctic will rise or fall in a warming world, but the risk of lakes either flooding or drying up is a climate concern across the world. thus, nash feels this must be investigated. because their work takes place on indigenous land, nash also emphasized the focus their group has on community engagement and performing scientific research respectfully and ethically.

“these communities have a very complicated relationship with western science in general and the people that we represent when we come back,” nash said, “so it really takes time and open-mindedness entering these communities and building trust, honestly, and laying the foundation of mutual respect and understanding.”

in a field dominated by men, nash gravitated towards axford’s lab not only because of her specialization on arctic paleoclimate research but specifically after reading axford’s science article titled ‘thanks to the glass ceiling breakers,’ outlining her experiences as a woman in stem.

“today, i’m living my dream,” axford wrote in her 2016 article, “and yet, despite how far science has come… i have lost track of how many times i’ve met a colleague for the first time and been told, ‘i’ve read your papers. i thought you were a man!’”

“i was just blown away by everything she had to say [in the article],” nash said. “i thought she seemed like such an incredibly strong glass ceiling-breaking scientist… the arctic is the most rapidly warming region on the planet today, which poses a very immediate concern for climate scientists. i was very compelled by the argument that studying past and current arctic climate change impacts can help us better understand and prepare for current and future climate change impacts globally.”

picture this: you’re a montauk local on dec. 18 2023 and as you and your loved ones watch the news, a winter storm is expected. when hearing the term, “winter storm,” one immediately thinks of a blizzard. unfortunately, this close-knit hamlet and other long island towns experienced a storm resembling a hurricane.

it shrank many of the cherished beaches and caused major flooding, damage to coastal homes, and even a flood of trash on the shorelines. that’s not all. three more storms rolled in like turbulent waves within the next month. this destruction (to my hometown) brought perilous risks for the future of the local’s livelihoods. it’s a devastation that came to the attention of people of all ages. local instagram stories revealed ditch plains beach, webster beach, and main beach swept away by chaotic waves, leaving bare sandbags and trash for miles. 

some of the best waves come from storms like these, attracting surfers within the montauk community and outside of it, but there is a downside to this that the locals and the rest of eastern long island continue to struggle with. even though montauk is a small community, there is no doubt of its resilience when it is faced with hardships like this. we look back at hurricane sandy, a storm that ravaged the dunes, destroyed homes, and even took lives. despite those hardships and the loss of loved ones, these events have also prepared us for future ones by realizing how fragile our coastal environments truly are.  

as someone who grew up with the ocean — watching the waves crash against the coarse sand, doing the polar plunge, fishing with my family, and learning to surf — i want to protect my home. if none of us did, we wouldn’t have the lives we have now. from the moment my little self met the ocean, it immediately became a part of my life. it’s like one of your first friends that you can always go to, but the ocean will never leave. like a friendship, you need to protect it by safeguarding it and respecting how important it truly is. if you don’t, it weakens over time.

my family and i surf here, my dad takes my siblings, friends, and me out to fish. my two best friends and i paddleboard every summer, and those i graduated with from montauk public school and east hampton high school have a unique and special connection to montauk. everything in this town is interconnected because of the locals and those who visit.

click the presentation below to read the full story:

during january of 2024, i was able to visit st. vincent in the eastern caribbean to learn more about the land and society there. our small research team visited villages in the north leeward part of the island, listening to people’s stories of the 2021 la soufrière volcano eruption. we heard how people disregarded evacuation orders and stayed in their homes, what it was like to be displaced and navigate aid and public shelters, and how the community was brought together for a short period as a result of this devastating event. ash from la soufrière covered the entirety of the island for months, ruining most crops and livelihoods. some of these stories are collected here. thank you to everyone who contributed to this collection and may these stories and photos bring you joy, laughs, humility, gratitude, and respect.

click on the presentation below to read the full story:

tony and vinny aren’t your typical mob bosses. first of all, they’re llamas, and all their underlings are goats. also, the only things getting whacked by this mob are weeds.

the herd belongs to emily mcmurtrey of mutton mowers llc, a berthoud-based company that rents out its 75 goats and two llamas to remove unwanted or invasive vegetation from the landscape. the llamas protect the goats and keep them in line, earning the title of “mob boss” as mcmurtrey affectionately calls them, while the goats do what they do best – eat.

mcmurtrey’s clients include municipalities across boulder county such as boulder and superior, where recent mitigation efforts have come in response to the devastating marshall fire that destroyed over 1,000 homes and damaged hundreds more across boulder county in dec. 2021. while municipalities and private landowners hire grazing services for a variety of purposes, some of the most important applications include wildfire mitigation and invasive plant management.

mitigation efforts will only become more important as climate change continues to progress. not only do the warmer, dryer conditions brought on by climate change make fires more frequent and more dangerous, but increases in the number of invasive plants such as cheatgrass can also provide wildfires with the opportunity to burn hotter, faster, and longer. since goats will eat almost anything, including overgrown vegetation and noxious plants, allowing them to graze provides a natural method of combating these issues.

“they’re not the best solution in all cases,” mcmurtrey said. “but overall, the thing that makes goats amazing for vegetation removal or fuels mitigation is their ability to give back to the land. and so they’re doing it in a natural way that provides input into the soil without taking everything away. and they can break things down.”

in other words, this is one rare instance where people actually might want animals pooping on their lawns.

a model published by the first street foundation, a new york-based nonprofit that evaluates climate risk, predicts 83 percent of colorado structures will have at least some risk of being affected by wildfires within the next 30 years. also, a study published in the academic journal global change biology claims that a 20 to 30 percent increase in invasive species could result in a massive loss in global biodiversity.

while herbicides and heavy machinery can efficiently remove these species, the methods tend to be expensive and rely on heavy machinery and chemicals that can further damage the environment. goat grazing offers a natural alternative and could have a significant impact if employed on a large scale alongside other mitigation methods. in other words, goats just might be the new g.o.a.t.

goat grazing as a mitigation strategy is a relatively new practice, with companies offering these services only emerging within the past few decades. lani malmburg became an early adopter of goat grazing when she started goat green in 1996 with her two sons, who were 11 and 12-years-old at the time. today, her company has a herd of over 1,000 goats that do jobs all across the country.

“i did not want to go get a job that all of us with masters in weed science were slated to get,” malmburg said. “i didn’t want to go sell chemicals for chemical companies or be the county weed person somewhere. i didn’t want to do that.” 

“i wanted to stick to my values, which was to work outside, work with animals and keep my two sons with me,” she said. “and so i started this, and i made it up because i wanted to hold my values close to me.”

why goats?

while there are a number of different animals that could be used for grazing, goats offer unique advantages over other critters like cows and sheep. they are smaller and more mobile than cattle and have an aptitude for climbing, which not only makes it easier to transport and employ them in higher numbers but also allows them to reach places that other animals cannot, including trees and cliffs.

“the goats can eat the entire fire fuel ladder, and they’re the only animal that can stand on their hind feet to reach it all,” malmburg said, describing the ascending vegetation that allows fires to climb from the ground up to low tree branches and eventually into the tree canopy — hence the term “fuel ladder”. 

“and they’re recycling it all in place and turning that unwanted foliage into pure organic fertilizer, and then they’re scattering it and trampling it in making the soils healthy, full of nutrients, and stabilizing the steep hillsides,” she said. “and that’s all done in one shot.”

in addition to their mobility, the goats’ hooves create marks in the ground that serve as a natural form of irrigation when combined with the nutrients they release back into the soil through waste. because of this, malmburg is able to offer land cultivation services in addition to vegetation removal by spreading seeds over the goat-fertilized land. 

perhaps the greatest tool at the goats’ disposal is their superior appetites and digestive systems. they not only eat a ton but will eat almost anything put in front of them including plants that would normally be poisonous to other species. in fact, they are able to eat three to four percent of their body weight per day.

another advantage that their digestive system offers is that the goats do not pass viable seeds after eating the plants, which is particularly useful when dealing with invasive plants that would otherwise regrow. with teeth designed to chew through even the toughest of roughage, and a four-chambered stomach for the seeds to pass through, the goats are able to thoroughly break down the seeds by the time they are expelled as manure.

while the goats put their stomachs to use, they need their “mob bosses” to keep them in check and herd them effectively. mcmurtrey uses her llamas for herding and protection while malmburg opts to use herding dogs, a far more conventional option.

“one good dog and one person that knows what they’re doing can manage 1,200 goats,” malmburg said.

while unconventional, mcmurtrey remains satisfied with her llama mob bosses and believes they are the best fit for the urban spaces many of her jobs are in. especially since some people might mistake a herding dog for a stray or neglected pet.

“llamas were a much better fit for my operation,” mcmurtrey said. “they’re kind of goofy looking which is something people really like. they’ll say ‘wow, that’s something different.’”

“they enjoy the humming, which is the alert noise the llamas would make, and llamas are just kind of a figurehead for the business,” she said. “but they still provide a good service for my goats.”

under the leadership of their furry mob bosses, the goats have the potential to be as effective as trained workers. according to both malmburg and mcmurtrey, the goats will take to training and retain that information over time, teaching their young how to operate within the herd and making the whole group easier to manage in the long run. because of this, neither of the women slaughters their goats for meat, instead allowing them to age and build experience as grazers before teaching their young to do the same.

“that business model [slaughtering] did not work for me,” mcmurtrey said. “i found that it was the personalities of my goats and the makeup of my herd that really made my business.”

even though goats are particularly effective for grazing as a tool for wildfire and invasive plant mitigation, other animals such as cattle or sheep can also be used. tim seastedt, an ecologist in the boulder area who studies these plant systems and invasives, actually prefers the use of mixed herds to get a variety of benefits.

“cows ain’t gonna be the answer, goats won’t be the answer, sheep won’t be the answer, but actually mixing them, and timing them, and moving them correctly will be,” seastedt said.

however, goats remain the hooven lawnmowers of choice for many, including leslie clark, the director of parks, recreation, and open space for the town of superior.

“cattle grazing near residential areas isn’t always a great mix,” clark said. “goats are just more of our cup of tea, and cattle tend to need larger open space areas than what we have to offer.”

goats get results that humans can’t

with the amount of work that goes into clearing out unwanted vegetation as a mitigation strategy, goats remain just one tool among many. however, grazing can have a significant impact in reducing the amount of human-based work needed to achieve results, and employing other strategies alongside grazers can further improve the outcomes.

a herd of goats can save human workers from a substantial amount of time-consuming physical labor.  they can also penetrate dense, overgrown areas and hard-to-reach spaces much more effectively than humans can. it is much easier to have goats do their thing and then remove any material they missed than it is to have a team try to remove it all by hand.

“weed mitigation is probably our number one thing that we do and a lot of that has to be done by hand with the use of volunteers, so you have to train people how to identify the weeds and set up volunteer efforts to do that,” clark said. “whereas the goats, they’ll just eat that stuff.” 

mowing is another effective strategy for removing a large amount of vegetation in a timely manner and is one of, if not the most, popular alternatives to grazing. when dealing with a relatively small area, a mower is often more convenient than bringing in an entire herd.

“if you could just mow a plant like cheatgrass a couple of times, just when it was about to produce seeds, you can knock out its seed production and since it’s an annual plant that grows only from seed the next year, you reduce the seed bank and within three years you’ve pretty much gotten rid of the cheatgrass,” seastedt said. “so you can do it but you know, it’s intense, labor intensive, and time-focused.”

goats do offer some key advantages over their mechanical counterparts, however. there are many areas where bringing in large machinery is not a viable option due to the terrain, in which case the more mobile goats are a preferable option. grazing is also less disruptive to any wildlife that may be in the area. 

herbicides offer yet another viable alternative for removing vegetation and can be particularly effective when targeting only certain spots or individual plants. boulder county’s weed control supervisor joe swanson has found the herbicide rejuvra to be particularly effective in recent years.

“right now, i would say the herbicide is having the best effect that we have because it’s a one-time treatment, five to seven ounces,” swanson said. “so that’s all we did eight years ago on some of our sites was that one treatment, and we’re still seeing the cheatgrass removed from sites.”

it is important to note that using herbicides on a large scale can have adverse impacts on the environment by introducing artificial and harmful chemicals into the soil, potentially creating more problems than it is solving if done haphazardly. because of this, seastedt remains skeptical of herbicides as a viable solution.

“the trouble with the ones they use on cheatgrass is actually that the preferred cheatgrass killer now prevents seed germination,” seastedt said. “so they put it on and nothing can germinate the next year, which is wonderful except it leaves a brown spot if you’ve got nothing but cheatgrass, so now you have no vegetation on that spot whatsoever.”

unlike herbicides and mowing — which are often powered by fossil fuels — grazing is unique in the sense that it is a completely natural solution that can remove vegetation without harming or introducing pollution into the ecosystem, hence the name of malmburg’s company, “goat green”. in a world where climate change is worsening and having a direct impact on invasive species and wildfire risk, it is increasingly important to employ environmentally friendly solutions whenever possible, according to malmburg. 

“we can’t afford to be killing anything, and we can’t afford to be putting this stuff [chemicals] into our environment,” malmburg said.

while effective, goat grazing faces challenges

just like with any other method, goat grazing does have some drawbacks. a major concern is that goats can be a little bit too good at their jobs. if allowed, they will keep munching until there’s nearly nothing left. to prevent overgrazing, the goats’ progress must be monitored and they should only be on the land for as long as is necessary to remove the unwanted foliage.

according to the world wildlife foundation, overgrazing can lead to significant harm to plant systems through erosion, compaction, and loss of nutrients, which can make it difficult for any future vegetation to grow.

also, while the goats do eat everything, they know what they like and will go for that first. meaning, it might take them some time to actually start eating the plants that are being targeted.

“one thing i learned early on about goats is that they have their ice cream list and they go through it,”  seastedt said. “they’ll clear out what tastes best first, but eventually they will eat everything. you’ve just got to leave them there long enough.”

the timing of when the goats are released is another major factor that needs to be taken into consideration. especially when targeting invasive species, it is important to release the goats at a point in the plants’ growing process where the goats can digest the seeds and prevent the unwanted plant from spreading or regrowing, according to mcmurtrey.

“timing is everything, especially with invasive species management, which is what i get called in for most of the time,” mcmurtrey said. “because we’re looking at that thistle, or the whitetop or curly dock, or you name it, and you’re looking to do that before they go to flower or seed.”

there’s also a goat shortage. there are relatively few businesses that offer grazing services — and even fewer with large herds like malmburg’s — compared to how many would be needed to have a significant impact on a greater scale.

“there needs to be 1,000 of us, running 1,000 goats each,” said malmburg.“ i mean, look at the amount of fire mitigation that needs to be done. and sure we have 1,000 goats, but when you look at the colorado mountains, boy, we’re not going to get very far in a month.”

it’s a tough business to get into.

not only is the grazing business incredibly hard work, but raising, herding, keeping, and grazing goats are all learned skills that take time and dedication to master. 

as an industry expert, malmburg shares her knowledge and experience in hopes of encouraging more individuals to start grazing businesses. that is why she started the goatapelli foundation, a nonprofit group that provides education and training to those hoping to get into goat grazing.

in addition to the learning curve and dedication required, starting a herd has large start-up costs in the form of animals, land, and equipment. also, once a grazing business is established, it takes time to build a herd with the temperament, training, and experience that makes the job much easier. 

after all, even a single naughty goat is capable of wreaking havoc. early into mcmurtrey’s career, she once spent six hours chasing an escaped goat through a neighborhood — a goat on the lam, if you will. in many ways, dealing with goats can be like dealing with children.

“i consider myself a principal, and the goats are all my kids,” mcmurtrey said.

those who wish to hire grazers for fire mitigation and invasive plant management face challenges as well. for municipalities, it is often difficult for land managers to advocate for the resources necessary to actually hire grazers.

“it’s a challenge only because it’s not something that municipalities probably have budgeted for,” said clark. “in the past, you might budget for mowing and trimming and doing regular landscape work on the more developed parts, but grazing is a relatively new method for land management, and so we are just now getting our budgets aligned so that we can fund that.”

since mitigation is a preemptive measure, it becomes easy for individuals to ignore the issue until it becomes a visible problem. the marshall fire proved this, and a renewed focus on wildfire mitigation in its wake has led places like louisville to look into goat grazing. however, efforts to educate the public on mitigation and grazing could cause more municipalities and private landowners alike to embrace the method without the need for another disaster.

mcmurtrey believes strongly in the importance of educating people on these issues, and will occasionally hold “meet and bleat” events where she will visit communities with her animals in order to teach people about mitigation and spread awareness.

“more and more municipalities are embracing outside-of-the-box type of approaches to how do we handle these issues,” mcmurtrey said. “and i think the more that people reach out and use those approaches and create these spaces for people like myself to come in, or at least have the opportunities to educate people, the more i am optimistic for the future.”

the following selections of text are excerpts from journals kept by residents or visitors of the former texas capital, austin, and the surrounding areas. the selections were written during the period of 2035-2047, a period known as the great drain of the highland lakes, commonly referred to as the great drain. the great drain was one of the most devastating climate catastrophes in american history at the time, where all of the highland lakes of the texas hill country dried up, reverting the man-made water reservoirs into barren wastelands, displacing over a million people. it can be concluded that the cause of the great drain was anthropogenic: a result of human-induced climate change.

the excerpts primarily focus on the great drain in regard to lake travis. this lake was located northwest of austin, from 1942 until 2042.

the following excerpt is from dr. olivia l. chambers’s observation journal while conducting research that would later be published in a paper titled agricultural advancement and jevons paradox. the research article was published on june 8, 2035, however the date this particular observation journal entry was written on is unclear. dr. chambers earned her phd in agricultural economics from texas agricultural and mechanical university in 2027 and was interested in sustainable agriculture.

i am nearing the end of my data collection for my research on the connection between agricultural advancement and jevons paradox in the area surrounding lake travis in the texas hill country. after preliminary analysis of the data, i have uncovered problematic findings. i figure it would be best to make some sense of them here before advancing with my research.

first off, in the past few years alone, agricultural technologies have seen drastic advancement and growth, expanding the possibilities of agriculture in a world where the climate is rapidly changing. we now have genetically modified crops that require less of the limited resources we rely on: land, water, nutrients. additionally, those crops have been engineered to withstand the extreme temperatures of central texas and increased exposure to direct sunlight, both of which are crucial as the climate is changing. they are the perfect crops. it was the perfect solution. the intensity of food shortages have been reduced around the globe, as more food has been able to be produced than ever before. but, the problem arises when we look at the data. water usage should have decreased and prices should have decreased (due to simple supply and demand concepts). but they didn’t. agricultural water use skyrocketed, prices stayed about the same, and demand for the crops only grew. that’s why i needed to research this topic, however in doing so, i realized that it is worse than i originally thought it to be.

despite the crops requiring less water to grow, they still need water. and now, the population is growing faster than ever before and demand has increased dramatically for the crops, water use for agriculture has grown instead of shrinking as what was hoped with the introduction of these crops. this is a classic case of jevons paradox. increased efficiency resulting in increased consumption. the solution becomes the problem. at the current rate, the agricultural industry would end up draining the lake in a matter of months. that’s a little dramatic, however, in our world today, nothing is out of the question. i plan on finishing my research on this topic soon, and i would like to aim for a late may or early june publication date, that is if all goes well in the next few months with my further analyses of the data.

for those curious, agricultural advancement and jevons paradox used to be on record at the travis archives, however, it was lost due to a fire which destroyed most of the documents on record in the archives.

the following excerpt is from ethan palmer’s journals, volume 4, page 37. this particular entry can be traced back to october 27, 2042. palmer was a reporter for a local news company, however it cannot be discerned exactly which one it was that he worked for at this exact time. his primary focus was on the impacts of the climate crisis in the central texas region.

the water level of lake travis has been on the decline for years now. but, this time i sense it’s different. it’s natural for rivers and lakes to fluctuate in water volume with dry seasons and wet seasons, yet this dry season has been lasting longer than any we have seen before. the data shows that the water level of lake travis is dropping faster than anything we had ever seen before. it’s all of them, though. all the highland lakes, not just lake travis. no way to sugar-coat the situation like we do with some of the news, we’re callin’ it the great drain.

strange thing is, nobody seems too certain of the cause. or at least that’s the way people sound when i talk to them here in the office. i think that’s a bold face lie though. i think everyone’s too scared to say what they actually think and know it is, myself included. summers have been getting hotter and lasting longer and everyone is starting to feel it. not just us here in austin and the surrounding communities. i know deep down that it’s climate change to blame, and everybody else knows it too. why ain’t we saying anything about it?

water prices have shot through the roof and lcra1 has yet to comment. gasoline prices have been unreasonable ‘cause not as much can be squeezed from the ground anymore. but prices for water have already surpassed that. so bad that people from communities surrounding the lake are trying to move themselves closer to the lake. starting colonies of sorts in areas which used to be completely underwater; creating a new city that people have decided to call travis. none of those people have any fear the lake will rise. travis’s a cross between a graveyard, a shanty town, and ranchland. groves of dead pecan trees have begun to emerge from the water from long ago before the colorado river was turned into a lake. people have moved cattle in to graze on grass thriving next to what’s left of the water in the area. somehow, people already know that the water level isn’t going to rise again but again nobody’s saying anything. leaves me to wonder if this is how everything ends. in a silent storm?

footnotes added by the travis archives for ease of reading and comprehension.

1 – lcra: lower colorado river authority.

the organization responsible for the maintenance of the water supply, electricity generation, and ecology of the lower colorado river region during the time before and during the great drain.

volumes 1-4 of palmer’s journals are available in the travis archives, and are open to the public to read. this entry is the last of his journal entries on record.

the following excerpt is from ava reynolds’s “news reflection journal” as she titled it. this particular entry can be traced back to january 29, 2047. little is known about ava reynolds. based on conclusions drawn from this journal, reynolds was one of the original students of the travis school, and this journal was an assignment given by one of her classes. the journal follows the austin-american statesman newspaper, with a new entry each week, reflecting on the news of that week. this excerpt was selected because it documents the news during the week in which the effects of the great drain reached the climax.

the news this week has been some of the scariest things i’ve seen. it has made me feel like i am living the life of one of those characters in the science fiction books i used to read. i stopped reading those a while ago because they started becoming too real. but that’s how it is with most of the news nowadays i guess. on the front page of the statesman was an article with the title: “the great drain has taken its toll: lake buchanan now empty.”

the article began by talking about everything that has happened so far with the great drain. nothing new there. first, lady bird lake drained, then lake austin, then lake travis, and so on. then the article said that lake buchanan, the largest of the lakes and the closest to the source of the colorado river of texas, the lake that everyone believed would withstand the great drain, finally drained because of the stress we put on it. the cover picture is of what used to be lake buchanan and an abandoned town that was uncovered from the draining lake. they’re calling it the atlantis of the southwest.

now all of the lakes are dry and not even a stream of water flows through our town of travis anymore, my oasis, my home, has lost its lifeline. what does the future hold for us? we still have some water stored in underground tanks, but how long will those actually last us? i’m afraid it won’t be long enough. especially with the excruciating heat waves we have been getting throughout the year, even during the winter months. it’s all too much. i don’t know.

this journal is the only piece of reynolds’s work in the travis archives. for other analyses of the news from this time period, please refer to the news journals of harper j. anderson.

the following selection is from mitchell “mitch” t. harrison’s research paper the great drain, lake travis, and today. this is a new addition to the archives, as it was written on july 7, 2200. harrison is a student at the travis school and focuses his schoolwork on environmental issues, both past and present. the research focuses on the effects of the great drain and how people have been able to overcome this tragic event.

introduction

in 1942, mansfield dam’s construction was complete. the dam created lake travis, a vital water source that would support the people living in central texas for years to come. however, the reservoir’s life was cut short due to the great drain, a catastrophic event wherein the highland lakes of the texas hill country “drained.” they didn’t actually drain, however, they did experience rapid reductions in water level over a short period of time, causing people to feel as if the lakes were actually draining. in reality, the great drain was a complex problem stemming from excessive agricultural water usage, climate change, and population growth. however, as time went on, we have been able to overcome many of the challenges the generations before us faced during the time leading up to and immediately following the great drain of the highland lakes. the purpose of this research is to synthesize the information that has been gathered about the great drain into a comprehensive analysis of the period.

excessive agricultural water usage

during the time period between 2025-2042, major advancements in agriculture were made. dr. olivia l. chambers, a researcher in the topic of agricultural advancements during the period, focused on the excessive use of water on agriculture despite increased efficiencies in crops. because of genetic modification, the crops being grown during this time period were designed to “require less of the limited resources we rely on: land, water, nutrients” (chambers, 2035). with the ability to produce more crops at a lower environmental cost, it would have made sense for the cost of food to decrease, both in every industry, however, that is not what occurred. due to a paradox known as jevons paradox, the prices stayed the same, demand went up, and usage of land, water, and nutrients skyrocketed as well. the increased efficiency in crop production resulted in increased consumption and production, causing environmental damage. while climate change can be argued to be the primary cause of the great drain, agricultural water usage should not be overlooked.

climate change and improper water management

climate change was another major factor in the cause of the great drain. however, what makes the effects of this factor worse is improper water management. during the period and before, people who lived in the lake travis area (and all around the world) felt that the world was getting warmer. summers were getting longer and cloudless skies were becoming more common (palmer, 2042). the region began to get “excruciating heat waves…throughout the year, even during the winter months” (reynolds, 2047). water was becoming more of a luxury resource as the quantity of it available was dwindling due to changes in the weather patterns. the chihuahuan desert started to expand upwards during this time, desertification, a phenomenon primarily observed in the sahara desert and the amazon desert. despite that, there didn’t seem to be much of any extreme restriction (other than raised prices) placed on the people drawing from the lakes, despite the dire situation. proper management of the water supply would have gone a long way to preventing the great drain from becoming as bad as it did.

population growth

population growth was the final straw in the equation of the great drain. this was what threw the great drain over the edge to becoming a terrible disaster. in dr. olivia l. chambers’s research, she noted that the “population is growing faster than ever before” (chambers, 2035). as a result of the population growth increase, more water usage was required to sustain the population in both the domestic and agricultural sectors, which effectively drained the lakes. and with the unpredictability of the weather and the lack of information about the climate, nothing was able to be done to manage the situation before it derailed.

conclusion

while the world isn’t perfect, we have definitely been able to make improvements, both in quality of life and quality of the environment. most people have adopted environmentally friendly habits and are leading a life of planetary stewardship, as opposed to the humans who lived generations before us. the dams built to hold the lakes now stand as ruined walls to remind us of a past that we should strive to never repeat; that we need to be better than the ones who came before us. water is still scarce, at least on the surface. the colorado river’s flow has been restored and now flows like a creek on the surface, however, most of the water that the colorado provides us comes from underground. because of the river restoration, the aquifers underground have been restored, and we can repurpose existing oil drilling machinery to extract water instead of oil. initiatives to collect the condensation from the air conditioning units and store it in our existing underground storage tanks are emergent and taking off very fast. although water is not as plentiful as it was before the great drain, we do have enough of it to sustain the small community here in travis.

more of mitchell t. harrison’s work is available by request in the travis archives and in the anderson memorial library in the travis school.

when the reports said that another hurricane was building in the atlantic it was no surprise. my family checked the weather every morning with a practiced wariness built on decades of caribbean hurricane seasons. when the predicted track directed it over our little mooring in st. thomas, united states virgin islands (u.s.v.i.), we prepared as we always did.

not long after, there was talk of developing a new classification to describe the monster storm – category 6. the alarms sounded when hurricane irma was announced to be the strongest hurricane in recorded atlantic history.

despite those that would call us crazy, there was never any question as to whether we would leave our sailboat. we had lived aboard our 48-foot monohull, verity, since i was an infant. so, we left st. thomas for the secluded mangrove lagoons of vieques, just 70 miles east of puerto rico. the strong mangrove roots anchoring us into place, we nestled ourselves back into the winding estuaries and waited out the storm.

hurricane irma

perched on the bow as we sailed back into st. thomas, i saw the desolation that was my beautiful island and my heart crumpled. the bright colors of a tropical paradise were gone. every plant was dead, stripped of green from the wind and salt spray. houses and their contents surged down hillsides, tumbling into the water. the shoreline was littered with broken and bleeding boats, the water cloudy and slick with dirt and chemical runoff. gunshots rang out across the island from looting. the infrastructure along the coast was all but razed to the ground. it looked like a bomb had dropped.

as our shell-shocked community attempted to make sense of the damage, we struggled to obtain the basic necessities. people crawled out of mangled homes into the blinding destruction to face the new reality of surviving in a disaster zone. the roads were impassable, electricity a distant dream. puerto rico and st. croix were sending aid, oblivious to the disaster brewing on irma’s heels.

hurricane maria

less than two weeks later, my family was forced to retreat again to vieques for category 5 hurricane maria. our little estuary saw the eyewall of the storm shortly after it pummeled st. croix and before it decimated puerto rico.

the early morning hours of sept. 20, 2017, will forever haunt me. the screeching howl of the 175mph wind as though it was a nightmare given life; the full-body jolt of the lines that held us in place snapping one by one; the window being sucked right out of its frame; rain water gushing in, flooding the floor boards; the printer sailing through the air across the salon, smashing into pieces a foot from my head; the screeching of the mangrove branches digging into the hull.

the next morning revealed the damage: all of our windward side lines had snapped or uprooted the massive mangroves from the earth. verity had been picked up by the storm surge and deposited on top of the mangroves at a 45° angle. we lived like that for three days.

in the end, we were absurdly lucky. our neighbors put together their collective expertise and hauled our 23-ton boat back into the water. i sailed away from vieques immensely grateful for our lives and our home. 

a communication issue

during the catastrophe of what is colloquially known as irmaria, we lost all communication. we did not know where the storm was, how strong it was, or how fast it was moving. in the words of jay titlow, senior meteorologist at weatherflow inc., “who cares about all of our data and observations if you can’t get that information out to the people who need it”; and we needed it. 

local historian gabrielle querrard describes the sinking dread while listening to the radio as maria slammed st. croix. “right when the winds started to pick up the entire radio line went dead and all you could hear was this white noise… after that, all of the cruzans went silent and you could not get any information in or out of st. croix”. brought to tears with the memory, she describes the grief that she felt for our sister island as they went through in silence what she had experienced 12 days before. 

when you are living in so much fear, so much uncertainty and such a lack of control, the psychological necessity for communication and information is fundamental. with the wind shrieking and being unable to see a foot in front of you, the radio was all we had tying us to the rest of civilization, to reality.

in the aftermath, amateur ham radio operators were the only ones capable of transmitting. they relayed messages to panicked loved ones in the states, coordinated evacuations and relief efforts, and connected us with external aid. neither the national guard, red cross nor fema could get to us. they were the only safety net we had for weeks before communication was restored. the civilian ham radio operators of the virgin islands and puerto rico saved lives during irma and maria.

almost all the emergency warning systems in place failed at some point during the storms. all that could be relied on was the amateur radio emergency service (ares). the herculean efforts of the ares operators have recently earned them the official designation as the first auxiliary communications unit under the u.s.v.i. territorial emergency management agency, solidifying and formalizing their role in emergency response in the v.i. 

the ham radio community mobilized in the years following the storms, offering classes and licensing exams. the storms made the fragility of our communication systems front and center for all of us, sparking a demand for licensing. prior to their classes, there was virtually no way to get licensed in the virgin islands.

in the spring of 2019, i took the first ham radio class offered in st. thomas and passed both my technical and general exams. every monday at 8pm i would check in to the ares net with my individual callsign, np2ro. without fail, every week we convened to ensure that our network was ready for action, and every week there were new voices. simultaneously, i founded my high school’s ham radio club – np2as – to educate my peers of ham radio’s vital role. over time, more of our friends, family and neighbors pledged to protect their community in the face of disaster. 

the grief and fear that i experienced during irma and maria changed my life. the ptsd from the storms and the anxiety that has plagued every hurricane season since then is difficult to put into words. the reality is that climate change will make storms like irma and maria more common, and our community needs to prepare. that is why i am committed to finding ways to communicate the urgency and opportunities to improve our situation both at home and abroad. it is why i am dedicated to building resiliency and raising awareness to protect the island, and the planet, that i call home.

following a 2010 landslide at attabad valley in gilgit baltistan, a pakistan-administered territory, displaced communities in the area are still reeling. the landscape alteration, marked by a massive lake, exacerbates mental health challenges amid environmental shifts. residents contend with loss of land, limited amenities, and disrupted livelihoods, showcasing resilience in adversity. the film portrays the intricate interplay between humans and environmental crises, emphasizing the critical need for support to navigate these multifaceted challenges.