growing up in china, every day after dinner, my father would bring out his mint green porcelain tea set to brew the family pu’er tea. a rich and earthy aroma arose as the dark-colored liquid was poured into my teacup. as i slowly sipped the tea, layers of flavors waltzed on my tongue. to me, tea is more than a drink. it’s a memory associated with home. it’s a cultural heritage of my country.

pu’er tea is produced exclusively in yunnan region thanks to its unique climate conditions and terrain, which allow ancient tea trees — some over a thousand years old — to flourish naturally. each batch of tea is an expression of its terroir, or the specific environment that gives each tea its unique taste, making it sensitive to the effects of climate change. variations in temperature and precipitation may affect tea yield, as well as alter the complex balance of chemicals that gives tea its special flavor and potential health benefits, reported in nature. 

according to the international tea committee, china, as the world’s largest tea producer, accounted for roughly 45% of the global tea production in 2020, followed by india. most tea-growing regions are located in china’s southern provinces that have a warm and humid climate. in yunnan, the tea industry has become an important economic pillar of more than 77% of its counties, with the tea industry providing “the main income source for millions of mountain farmers,” a journal article from environmental research communications reported.

the yunnan region experiences a subtropical monsoon climate. the intergovernmental panel on climate change reported that monsoon land precipitation will likely increase in east, southeast and south asia mainly due to increasing moisture convergence by elevated temperatures. the bad news is that more rain during the monsoon season has been shown to decrease tea yield, according to a study led by tufts university. one possible reason is the increased cloud cover that comes with rain has limited plant and tree growth. in another tufts university survey of chinese tea growers, the majority of farmers interviewed agreed that precipitation patterns have changed during their lifetimes — increased duration, strength and unpredictability. they have also observed fewer cold days and warmer winters and summers, resulting in earlier spring tea harvests and monsoon tea harvests. 

rainfall levels are of central importance to tea quality, which is determined by its aroma, looks, and taste. secondary metabolites are the chemical compounds that give tea its rich flavors, bitter taste, and health benefits. these are the compounds that allow me to distinguish pu’er from the other types of tea and give pu’er its distinct flavor as “gentle, elegant and comforting, like an embrace from a parent,” described by saveur’s executive digital editor max falkowitz. however, there’s a dilution effect of extra rain on tea plants that results in a decrease in concentrations of tea’s secondary metabolites, leaving the tea tasteless. in the survey, 94% of the farmers perceive that precipitation variability impacts tea quality and they linked a decline of up to 50% in household income from tea sales to the dilution of taste as the leaves take in more water from the extra rainfall. 

moreover, a study from food chemistry found that temperature variations due to elevations have a direct effect on tea quality. tea displays “sweet, floral, honey-like notes” at higher altitude, where the temperature is lower, while it gives “grassy, hay-like aroma” at lower. also, tea grown at a higher elevation contains compounds potentially beneficial to health that are missing from tea grown at a lower elevation in the same location. this suggests that tea would lose some of its health benefits if temperatures rise. 

the yunnan government warned in 2016 that the mean annual temperatures will keep rising over the next 10 to 30 years, adding that rain patterns disrupted by climate change will threaten the output of crops such as tea, tobacco, and rubber. 

tea is more than just a drink. it is a cultural heritage, an economic pillar, a healthy lifestyle, and an expression of nature. when i take a sip of pu’er, the gentle bitterness and nuances of flavors instantly bring me back to the dining table at home. i hear the sound of water boiling in the kettle; i see dad reading his book and mom patting my cat lusky, who’s purring loudly. as i look down in my tea cup, instead of my own face reflected back, i see a worrisome face of a chinese tea farmer. climate change is brewing a major challenge for tea production, and our actions in response will determine the livelihoods of millions of farmers.

why don’t we have ac, you might ask? because it just isn’t that popular. in 2019, less than a fourth of households in france were equipped with at least one air conditioning system, compared to 90% of households in the united states at that time.

but temperatures will continue to rise until at least 2050. how will we be able to cope? 

—

editor’s note: check back each day during cop26 for more pieces in planet forward’s climate hits home series.

rising sea levels and flooding are growing problems in virginia, and hurricane ida just showed us the devastating impacts. according to the national climate assessment (nca), increasing temperatures in virginia, sinking landforms, and changing ocean currents are causing sea levels to rise significantly higher than the global average. these extremely high levels have caused flooding all across the state. in my neighboring town of norfolk, “sea level rise has led to a fourfold increase in the probability of exceeding nws thresholds compared to the 1960s,” according to the nca.

virginia beach, alexandria, and richmond are especially prone to flooding because they are coastal cities. in my hometown of chantilly, virginia, we had two floods within the last month. it feels like it’s becoming a trend that every week we’ll face another natural disaster. according to the national climate report by the national centers for environmental information, some of the wettest locations this month included virginia, with precipitation totals 150% to 200% more than normal. virginia is becoming the new flood hotspot.  

the frequent road closures and risks to infrastructure, transportation and ecosystems are some of the immediate effects we’ve witnessed due to flooding, according to the nca. the nca said that the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa) measured as much as “1 to 3 feet of local relative sea level rise in the past 100 years in low-lying areas of the southeast.” this causes “critical levels” of high tides and daily risk to all areas of life, including to businesses and neighborhoods. i can remember fear consuming my body as i got ready to drive, get on a bus, or even metro, because of how dangerous the weather conditions were. i remember having to find alternate routes because roads were closed and streets were evacuated. one too many times i have heard a tree fall in my sleep, only to wake up and realize it’s actually on the road. roaring winds are a default noise to my ears, though they make it sound like my house is on the verge of collapsing. it’s a normal day when i’m begging my windshield wipers to go faster to keep up with the torrential downpour.

according to the intergovernmental panel of climate change (ipcc), sea levels are forecasted to rise about 55 inches by the year 2100. to contextualize, a process that should have taken 400 years with natural levels of warming has now been accelerated to 79 years. according to the noaa, sea levels are currently rising “about one-eighth of an inch per year.” growing up an athlete, i remember waiting for the calls and emails announcing that after school activities were canceled due to inclement weather. by the year 2100, my grandkids may get that call nearly everyday. 

the nca projects that this flooding will become more serious, disruptive, and costly as its frequency, depth, and inland extent grow with time. but not all hope is lost. while norfolk is known for its floods, sealevelrise.org states that they have allocated over $1 billion of proposed projects to protect against flooding by 2035. similarly, virginia beach and hampton roads have set aside money for stormwater projects and sewage systems respectively.

there are other steps we should be taking now to prevent more flooding in the future. reducing carbon emissions would address the problem at the source, because fewer carbon emissions means less warming. protecting our wetlands is another step we should be taking. these wetlands provide natural areas for the water to be stored. maybe, if we take these steps and others—while taking climate change seriously—virginians won’t have to purchase a boat in the near future just to get around town.

—

editor’s note: check back each day during cop26 for more pieces in planet forward’s climate hits home series.

editor’s note: check back each day during cop26 for more pieces in planet forward’s climate hits home series.

although farmer steve stierwalt grows crops in the tiny town of sadorus, illinois — with a population of barely 350 — the agricultural practices he employs have environmental implications that stretch from midwestern cornfields to central american seas. 

fertilizer-polluted waterways in champaign county, where stierwalt farms, converge into the mississippi river, emptying toxins into the gulf of mexico — where a 2,000-square-mile, pollutant-induced hypoxic zone makes aquatic life nearly impossible.   

one cause of deoxygenated water in the gulf? water that falls from the sky. 

“it’s pretty amazing the amount of energy each single raindrop has,” stierwalt said. “when it hits bare soil, it’s like a miniature explosion. it displaces soil particles. anytime that soil gets into surface water, it’s carrying nutrients with it. the nutrients, as we know, contribute to the hypoxic zone.” 

to reduce soil erosion that illinois rivers carry to the gulf, stierwalt has decreased fertilizer use and adopted conservation practices, like nutrient management tools that measure cost-effective and environmentally conscious amounts of nitrogen to apply to corn. 

sustainable agriculture practices — like rotating crops, planting cover crops, and eliminating tillage — allow stierwalt to adapt to heavy rainfall, a form of extreme weather intensifying in illinois. indeed, science confirms stierwalt’s observations: a major assessment released by the nature conservancy in april outlines how climate change will escalate periods of extreme heat, increased precipitation, and more intense storms in illinois. 

on farms, for instance, heavy rain and conventional tillage — ploughing, harrowing, and removing plant residue to prepare seedbeds — can trigger a chain reaction of climatic damage, contributing to soil erosion, and phosphate- and nitrate-infested run-off, resulting in pollution of the gulf. these processes are already transforming illinois, and no domain — from urban infrastructure to human health to plant biodiversity — will remain unaffected. 

the report drew on the expertise of 45 researchers, scientists, climatologists, and policy-makers in illinois, all of whom contributed to its stark findings.  

“climate change can seem like an overall threat that we don’t have any ability to change,” said michelle carr, illinois state director at the nature conservancy. “when we look at state-specific data, and how it affects different industries that are prominent in our state, it allows those players to do more, because they’re seeing the specificity to their own geography.”  

45 authors, one report

co-led by climatologist donald wuebbles, former illinois state climatologist james angel, climate change project manager at the nature conservancy karen petersen and director of conservation science at the nature conservancy maria lemke, the 197-page report contains contributions from 45 specialists and covers the impacts of climate change on illinois hydrology, agriculture, public health, and ecosystems. the statistics alone illustrate the projected scope of environmental transformation.

accompanied by longer growing seasons and less severe extreme cold, temperatures will likely warm by 4 to 9 degrees f under a lower scenario and 8 to 14 degrees f under a higher scenario by the end of the 21st century. longer growing seasons may sound like a bonus — but extremely long seasons can devastate, limiting crop diversity, encouraging invasive plant growth and straining water supplies. 

the report also projects more rainy days and fewer snowy days by the century’s end, trends on the heels of a 5% to 20% increase in mean precipitation over the past 120 years. according to projections, severe weather will contribute to short-term droughts, as well as intense rain and flooding. far from functioning as a minor inconvenience, flooding can delay planting, wash away fields of seedlings and destroy exposed crops. 

illinois residents can expect extreme heat by the century’s close, too. in southern illinois, for instance, scientists project the annual hottest 5-day maximum temperature to increase from 96 degrees to 100-107 degrees f under a lower scenario and 102 to 114 degrees f under a higher scenario.

“you see reports about fires in california or sea level rise in florida, and you think it’s more of a coastal problem,” petersen said. “we hope this report will help make some of those future impacts tangible, and for people to realize that climate change will have serious impacts in illinois, and we can still do something about it.”

wuebbles said land use and greenhouse gas emissions have remained the most significant contributors to climate change since the mid-1900s. heavy emissions, he added, are unsustainable: the report projects that continued fossil fuel use will produce the most dramatic transformations, while a switch to renewable energy will net less extreme changes. a third scenario — which wuebbles called “negative emissions” — will require scientists to harness technology to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. 

regardless of the scenario, human activity will drive transformations in northern, central, and southern illinois, said wuebbles, a university of illinois at urbana-champaign professor who has contributed to several united nations intergovernmental panel on climate change reports.

“illinois’ climate is expected to continue to change over the century, with significant impacts on urban and rural communities and sectors,” he said.

from farming to flooding 

consistent with the report’s predictions, stierwalt has observed — and adapted to — extreme weather events. to protect soil, waterways, and farmland, stierwalt practices no-till, strip-till, and cover crop farming — practices that sequester carbon in his soil while reducing nutrient pollution and soil erosion. 

currently the president of the association of illinois soil and water conservation districts, stierwalt also serves on the steering committee for s.t.a.r., a nationwide program dedicated to “saving tomorrow’s agriculture resources” by helping farmers adopt conservation-based practices. 

“healthy soils are more armored against these extreme weather events,” stierwalt said. “(without adapting), the danger is losing this asset that we can’t afford to lose. we lose that soil for future generations.”  

in conventional tillage, farmers use an implement to turn over soil, passing over the field multiple times and leaving barren soil behind. in no-till farming, farmers use planters or drills to cut a v-slot in the remains of previous crops, planting seeds within. benefits of no-till include increased infiltration and soil fertility, and decreased labor costs and soil erosion. 

adopting sustainable agricultural practices, like no-till and drought-resistant crops, will determine the extent to which “future generations” of farmers face smaller crop yields, increased livestock illnesses, and increased crop diseases. bill miller, a northwestern university engineering professor who contributed to the report, said “natural climate solutions” present promising ways to mitigate extreme weather. cover crops, for instance, prevent soil erosion while strengthening soil’s biological properties. “it can help build up the richness of the soil,” miller said. 

farming, though, is far from the only affected sector. changing precipitation patterns are causing flooding events in the majority of illinois’ gaged rivers and streams, exacerbating stress on urban drainage systems and increasing the incidence of combined sewer outflows. northwestern engineering professor aaron packman, who also serves as director of northwestern’s center for water research, worked on the report’s hydrology team. 

packman said chicago’s low-lying inland areas, particularly neighborhoods on the south and southwest side, are especially flood-prone. there, stormwater damage and inadequate infrastructure deplete property values, and chronic flooding carries waterborne illnesses. across the city, extreme weather exacerbates geographical inequalities.  

“the loop has more than a hundred years of engineering to keep everything from flooding,” packman said. “the lower-lying areas were settled later because they’re naturally more flood-prone, and they’re not as well protected by that centralized infrastructure.” 

the metropolitan water reclamation district of greater chicago treats wastewater and provides stormwater management for 5.25 million people in cook county, as well as a commercial and industrial equivalent of 4.5 million people. to mitigate the impacts of urban flooding and stormwater damage, mwrd has crafted stormwater management regulations for new developments, partnered with communities to better manage water and supported local green infrastructure projects. 

still, “policies, planning, tunnels and reservoirs cannot eliminate flooding alone,” mwrd public affairs staffer patrick thomas said. the report presents similar conclusions: packman said a combination of sustainable water management in agricultural sectors, flood-control measures in municipalities, state-wide policies and consistent data collection might mitigate the harm climate change poses to illinois’ water resources. 

no turning back 

prominent report contributors, including wuebbles, participated in a may 17 panel to discuss the report’s results. during the panel, elena grossman, the program manager of illinois’ building resilience against climate effects program, reminded audiences that projected extreme weather will significantly harm our physical and mental health. 

contaminated drinking water, tick- and mosquito-borne diseases and respiratory illnesses will all increase amid intensifying weather — so, too, will psychological and financial challenges.  

in the case of flooding, “there’s both the trauma of watching your home being flooded, of losing personal items, and then the financial stress of having to rebuild it or fix it,” grossman said. 

at its core, she added, the report is “about humans.” 

in the month since the report’s release, miller said authors have begun to discuss writing analyses that specifically address mitigation measures. as climate change continues to create extreme weather conditions in illinois, reimagining the state’s infrastructure, policies and economic practices becomes increasingly urgent, packman added. 

“climate change is a long-term process,” packman said. “but in the last four years, we’ve seen unprecedented things, things that historically never happened. so it’s not something far off in the future. it’s something happening now.”

***

q&a: farmer joe rothermel talks soil health, sustainability 

joe rothermel is a farmer who grew up in broadlands, illinois. he farms corn and soybeans on 1,000-acres in champaign county. in 1992, his father, also a farmer, switched from conventional tillage to conservation-driven no-till farming. 

conventional tillage requires farmers use an implement to turn over soil, leaving barren soil behind. in no-till farming, farmers use planters or drills to cut a v-slot in the remains of previous crops, planting seeds within. rothermel adopted no-till in 1995, and began supplementing this practice with cover crops in 2010. 

q: what are some of the advantages of farming with no-till and cover crops like alfalfa, rye, and clovers? 

a: one of the reasons we plant cover crops is to help increase our soil health. one of the things you’ll notice is soil structure is improved. the ground is firmer. you can drive on it sooner. we have a lot of heavy equipment nowadays, and in a conventional program it’s easy to compact the soil. conservation practices lend themselves to improving soil structure and holding up equipment so we don’t have as much compaction. 

one of the main reasons to plant cover crops or to no-till is to reduce soil erosion. through tillage, we’ve already lost half the organic matter that was originally in the prairie. other potential benefits are nutrient recycling. the more biological activity we have, the more nutrient recycling. the idea is to use less synthetic fertilizer, less inputs. if we can maintain the same output with reduced inputs, that’s more efficient for the farmer. 

and then the big thing is carbon sequestration. by not tilling the soil and using cover crops, through photosynthesis that will put carbon into the soil. hopefully someday, that’ll be a source of revenue for farmers to help offset some of the costs of these conservation practices.

q: how have extreme weather events impacted soil erosion and health?

a: it seems to rain a lot. we used to get a half inch [in a single rainfall]. now, if we’re unlucky, we can get a two- or three-inch rain in a couple hours. i think we’ve cut down on some erosion; we still get some gullies. but compared to some of the other fields in the area, it’s significantly less. some of the other conventionally tilled fields will have a cascade of soil coming off the field into the ditch. we don’t have that anymore. 

it’s not perfect — but it does reduce erosion, especially if you have covers growing. we want the water to go down into the ground instead of running off, because when it runs off it takes topsoil with it. and then it takes nutrients with it. and then we have the hypoxia issue in the gulf of mexico. and so that’s another issue. another reason to reduce tillage and grow covers.

q: what percentage of illinois farmers are practicing conservation agriculture? 

a: in illinois, less than 6% of farmers are growing cover crops, so there’s a long way to go. 

farmers are very independent. older populations don’t like change. there’s peer pressure. there’s a risk of failure. there’s a whole host of reasons, but i’d say the number one is economics. 

q: how can conservation farming become more economically viable? 

a: conservation is not free. initially, somebody’s got to pay for it, and i’m not sure it should all be on the farmer. if we would get paid for carbon sequestration that would certainly help.

but until then, there’s cost share programs from places like the (u.s. department of agriculture) and (natural resources conservation service). there’s several other places that will offer cost share. a lot of the big food companies now are getting on board, because they want to be able to tell their customers that their food supply is grown sustainably, so they’re offering some incentives to farmers. 

so there are some sources of revenue, but it’s not a huge amount of money. over the long run, i think this way of farming will eventually be self-sufficient. in other words, the benefits will outweigh the costs, and there won’t be a cost to it. hopefully, it will become the mainstream way of farming.

children are our future, as the song goes, and it turns out they are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat. unfortunately, temperatures continue to rise as a result of climate change. multiple factors put children at a higher risk of heat illness or exhaustion, including an absence of school heat policies and a lack of resources — in addition to children’s inability to identify when they are starting to overheat.

the good news is there are many solutions that we have identified through our research in south phoenix, arizona, that could be implemented to help reduce the impact of rising temperatures on children’s health.

extreme heat is dangerous to children because their thermoregulatory systems are still being developed, which influences their ability to recognize how hot/cool their bodies actually are, and in turn negatively impacts their classroom performance, health, and cognitive abilities. 

with so many other challenges facing children today, we need to give educators the tools to create solutions that can help reduce the compounding effects of increasing temperatures.

the challenge is schools often lack the appropriate resources for preparing youth and staff to manage the negative impacts of extreme heat. problems such as tight budgets, old infrastructure, and gaps in awareness of the issues and resources available prevent schools from taking action. 

therefore, we are studying how schools in south phoenix are adapting to high heat, and what they perceive are the most important elements of supporting schools to prepare for heat. 

our vision is to create heatready schools: those that are increasingly able to identify, prepare for, mitigate, track, and respond to the negative impacts of schoolyard heat. in collaboration with the city of phoenix’s heatready city program, our goal is to focus on community-level heat action plans that are correlated to city-wide plans to help boost the connectivity of mitigation and adaptation strategies. 

during our research, we conducted surveys and interviews and identified some potential solutions to the extreme heat that schools and communities experience. 

one of the most arduous challenges for schools experiencing extreme heat is funding for resources, such as shade coverage to increase adaptability. 

our interviewees and survey panelists offered their recommended solution to this, which is applying for grants to build shade structures and partnering with funders who share like-minded goals and values. 

in addition to partnerships for funding, it would be beneficial for a heatreadyschool to partner with local environmental and health organizations such as arizona sierra club, hue, arizona forward, dignity health, and phoenix children’s hospital. in doing so, heatreadyschools can access outside resources to fund school-wide initiatives, promote awareness of extreme heat, and educate community members about how heat affects them and how it will be resolved over time. a collaboration would also help alleviate and redistribute the weight of responsibilities that school staff carry already, creating more space for efforts to improve heat readiness within their school.

humans can only hear a finite range of the sound spectrum. sounds that are above the frequency of human hearing are referred to as “ultrasound.” whereas sounds that are below human hearing are called “infrasound.”

the ncpa, located on the university of mississippi’s campus in oxford, has developed a method to detect tornados using infrasound, sounds below the frequency of human hearing.  

there has never been a perfect method for detecting tornadoes. in fact, only one method works on a consistent basis.

“the easiest way to detect a tornado, in this day in age, is through people’s eyes and calling in their locations,” said dr. roger waxler, senior scientist and group leader for the infrasound research.  

waxler holds a phd in physics from columbia university, and has a professional background at numerous renowned institutions in the field.

the infrasound group at the ncpa are getting a better grasp on when tornados form, where they land, and where they move to, to provide more accurate information for the public before a tornado hits and to provide more images of these, he said. in addition to affecting the area of the midwest traditionally known as “tornado alley,” the southern united states, including mississippi, also is often hit hard by tornadoes.  

according to noaa and the national weather service’s storm prediction center, mississippi averages 45.1 tornado touchdowns a year. this number comes from certain features that the tornado produces, and forecasters are trained to look for these distinguished features.

the state ranks in the top 10 nationally for number of tornado touchdowns each year, with a variety of serious and non-serious effects. they usually hit the worst between the months of january and may, and can occur all the way through november.

ncpa scientists have been researching the use of sensor arrays, which they developed on campus, to pick up sound and pinpoint the tornadoes and track them through infrasound.  with their new technology, they have also been able to pick up information, through doppler radars, identifying wind speed and rotation of the tornado, within thunderstorms.  

“we get to go trounce around in national forests, putting out sensors, and we have a lot of fun,” dr. craig hickey, interim director of the ncpa, said with a laugh. the sensors he is referring to are placed in an array.  by measuring the time at which a signal arrives at each array placement, scientists can determine the direction of the signal.

dr. hickey, dr. waxler, and the rest of the researchers at the ncpa are optimistic about the direction of the tornado research.  

“there’s still a lot of questions [to be answered], and progress to be made, but the information we do have is certainly promising,” said waxler.

interviews:

dr. craig j. hickey (geophysics)

interim director of the national center for physical acoustics

senior research scientist ii

research associate professor of geological engineering and physics

662-915-5963

chickey@olemiss.edu

dr. roger waxler

senior research scientist ii

research associate professor of physics & astronomy

662-915-5963

rwax@olemiss.edu

garissa is about 6 hours’ drive heading northeast from nairobi, toward somalia. the region is relatively low-lying and semi-arid. farming and pastoralism are the main ways people eke out a living here, and it’s tough going when average yearly rainfall is 17 inches. worse, the rainfall is highly variable and unreliable, even during the two rainy seasons– called the ‘short rains’ (september to december) and the ‘long rains’ (march to may).  sometimes communities get hit with crop-withering droughts, and sometimes, as i learned from my two-day visit to nanighi in march, unexpected, fast-acting floods cause the most damage.

nanighi borders the brown, crocodile-ridden tana river. the farmers here all use irrigation to grow their vegetable and other crops. when the tana floods without warning, irrigation pumps get washed away, leaving families with limited or no means to keep their crops growing through the season. the pumps are expensive to buy and operate—often, multiple families chip in to purchase the machines and fuel needed to keep them running. during el niño, the risk of flooding increases. 

i visited nanighi to hear from community members about how the 2015 el niño and past episodes impacted their rural life, and to understand how they incorporate information based on climate forecasts to make or change their farming decisions. 

these testimonies are important because over the next few years iri will be working with kenya’s  meteorological department to build high-quality data sets and tools that will improve the quality of climate and weather forecasts and other types of information it generates for the country. we’ve also partnered with care kenya to improve the ways in which this critical information gets disseminated to places like nanighi and try to evaluate how it can make them climate resilient.