if you don’t know much about the country, you certainly know what it looks like thanks to hollywood location scouts. most recently, “dune” intensifies jordan’s bare rocky landscapes and sprawling desert dunes to depict a water-deprived planet, but there are dozens of other well-known films that make use of the country’s remarkable scenery. jon stewart’s “rosewater” captures the capital’s urban sprawl, “lawrence of arabia” shows off its beaches, and films such as “star wars: rogue one,” “the martian,” “indiana jones and the last crusade,” and the 2019 adaptation of “aladdin” take advantage of its most famous features: the wadi rum desert and the city of petra. 

while most of my american friends’ first time camping took place in a wooded and stream-striped forest, i slept soundly in my sleeping bag beside a fire amongst beetles and scorpions. instead of tackling a shrubby and rocky hill, my first hike was up a seemingly unconquerable never-ending sand dune. even my first time at a dance party was during a fifth-grade class trip with traditional jordanian drumming prompting us to hold hands and rhythmically skip around our campfire’s flames. i grew up in the hollywood backdrop to alien and/or mystical societies and i feel an overwhelming sense of pride, nostalgia, and humor when i see it blown up and projected on the big screen. while hollywood continues to portray a familiar and timeless, dry jordanian landscape, i know from my annual visits and videos sent from my family that it now has an inconsistent and turbulent climate.

to assume that global warming makes the desert hotter and drier would be correct! the world bank confirms that jordan is at high risk for drought and research projects that jordan’s average temperatures will increase from about +2.5°c to +5°c by the end of the century. with a water-scarce country that houses ten million citizens and three million refugees, jordan’s leadership must implement water-conserving infrastructure immediately to save itself from future disasters. however, the cities continue to grow and urbanize amidst the warming climate, which creates more impermeable surfaces that flood with (rather than soak up) rainfall. since water scarcity has been a major environmental challenge for time immemorial, much of the public and leadership overlook flash floods as yet another risk of a warming climate despite them claiming the lives of local children and threatening unknowing tourists. these floods make the country’s projected climate instability even more precarious. 

before expanding on the issue of flooding, it’s important to note that the information available is limited due to a low number of meteorological stations, as well as some research papers being published only in arabic. dr. al-raggad, a jordanian hydrogeologist, said that only in 2016 the jordanian government began monitoring precipitation in real-time, “but the historical data will remain as they are.” regardless, basic climate science tells us that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, and in a desert setting where temperatures drop as soon as the sun sets, that water is expected to condense and fall. another recently discovered phenomenon called an atmospheric river, may explain how warmer and wetter winds coming up from the african continent reach the dry levant. local researchers have concluded that in the “last two decades, the region has experienced a dramatic shift in its rainfall records patterns,” noting the series of floods that affected cities across the middle east and north africa over the past decade. in jordan specifically, flooding events in the early 2000s affected less than 200 people on average, but in the last four years, the average has been over 200,000.

when hollywood only comes to jordan to film in its undoubtedly breathtaking desert landscape, it not only fails to capture how places like petra now see destructive floods, but also how the country’s urban areas cannot keep up with the changing climate. these flash floods impact the cities as much as, if not more than, the desert. with growing refugee populations and limited funding, urban spaces grow larger with outdated flood systems and increased surface runoff. what can be done?

i was fortunate enough to travel to a nearby country to see how a driven group of urban foresters, theotherforest, adapted to their changing environment. during the summer of 2021, i visited lebanon and volunteered with theotherforest which works on introducing “miyawaki forests” to neglected pieces of land. these forests, developed by the late japanese botanist akira miyawaki, create green spaces that can absorb excess rain as well as provide shade for poorer and neglected communities. by planting native species’ saplings randomly and densely where there’s access to sun and water, within just three years of consistent maintenance the community will get a self-sufficient forest. it’s a process that brings back some of the greenery, biodiversity, and ecological services that a city typically erases.

as i walked through one of the young forests that had once been an abandoned lot, i couldn’t help but think about how i’d love to see this in jordan. the jordanian government is putting in more resources into anti-flooding measures, such as teaming up with the swiss government and the swiss agency for development and cooperation for risk mapping, but i wanted to know if this reforesting approach was taking root there. and i was thrilled to learn from the founder of theotherforest that a similar group had emerged in jordan called tayyun. to prevent future floods and restore biodiversity, tayyun found the powerful self-sustaining solution of urban foresting. these miyawaki forests serve as a green infrastructure method to 1. serve as a carbon sink where shrubs and trees pull carbon dioxide out of the air as part of photosynthesis, 2. create more habitats and encourage a return of biodiversity, and 3. restore degraded land and slow runoff from rain. 

looking through tayyun’s instagram page gave me the same giddy nostalgia as dune’s grand cinematography did, except the former was the documentation of real heroic work being done in the region. in face of the highly damaging and deadly flash floods of the last decade, local leaders have looked to nature-based solutions to soften the devastation of extreme weather. while it’s fun to go to the movies and recognize my home, i prefer to go home and learn how people there are setting an example for resilience for all of us to follow. 

it’s jarring to imagine such a long-standing custom becoming unsafe. but this threat to tradition is just one potential impact of climate change in the middle east and north africa.

the region, known as mena, is no monolith; generalization is dangerous. however, experts anticipate it being affected by global climate change more than other world regions.

while there are unknowns, certain factors make mena particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change. knowing these factors matters as we develop targeted solutions and work to piece together the global climate story across borders.

1. mena’s most populous cities are coastal; rising sea levels pose serious flood risks 

mena’s coastal cities are the most population-dense in the region. in the arabian sea and gulf region, cities like abu dhabi, doha, and dubai are at higher flood risk being located on low-lying coastal zones or islands. the world economic forum has identified 24 ports in the middle east and 19 ports in north africa they consider vulnerable to sea level rise. 

flood planning is going to be crucial as rising sea levels could make future major environmental events like cyclones even more devastating. doha may develop flood management protocol that could be relevant in california, too.

2. the mena region is the most water-stressed region in the world  

while mena will be seriously affected by flooding, it’s also the most water-stressed region in the world. by 2050, there are indications that natural water resources in mena will drop to 11 times less than the global average. 

while the water supplies are naturally lower due to heat, growing demands have pushed the limits. as a result of global warming, annual mean precipitation in the region could decrease by 10% in the region, according to a study from the cyprus institute. creative water management systems are going to be vital. efforts to desalinate and recycle water are possible, but underutilized due to issues with integration and associated costs.

3. the mena region is naturally one of the hottest, driest regions on earth

most people know mena for its naturally hot and arid climate. however, the “hottest days of today” could be daily occurrences on the gulf coast by 2070. the heat waves could make certain areas nearly unlivable. 

but even if it doesn’t escalate to that point, the implications for agriculture and the economy are vast. as average temperatures increase, dry seasons become longer and crops wither. with drier land, illness-inducing dust storms become more common, losses from dust storms total to $150 billion and more than 2.5% of gross domestic product (gdp) on average in mena already.

4. mena countries have experienced some of the fastest population growth rates worldwide

as globalization and urbanization in mena continue, so does population growth. mena experienced the highest rate of population growth of any region in the world over the past century.

as population growth continues, there will be increased water and energy demands. as we’ve discovered so far, climate change will only make resources more scarce. as water becomes scarce, water treatment techniques like desalination will require more energy input. more people means this vicious cycle is only propelled further.

5. historically, climate change and conflict have been inextricably linked throughout the region

qualifying mena solely through its conflicts isn’t nuanced or helpful. still, understanding that climate change and conflict are linked throughout mena is imperative.

in yemen, where the government has been absent, and armed conflict has increased, water has been weaponized at civilians’ expense. islamic state efforts to control the mosul and fallujah dams in 2014 speaks to how terror organizations consolidate power by manipulating resources.

as climate change causes scarcity, the relationship between climate and conflict is one of the most important dynamics to consider. the mena region illustrates the relationship, but it is not alone in experiencing it.

where do we go from here?

the rest of the world cannot be absolved from caring about these factors under the guise of distance. mena is a unique region, so it requires unique solutions. however, the trends outlined here are part of global climate patterns that can and will affect populations regardless of borders. education on mena’s risk factors, as well as its potential to overcome them, is the first step in approaching sustainable solutions. 

however, their experience today is very different than it would have been in jesus christ’s era.

the jordan river is a very different river. about 96% of the jordan’s original water flow has been diverted for human use and the little water that does remain is polluted with saline and untreated sewage. the pilgrims are bathing in filth.

but christians aren’t the only religious group who should be concerned. all three abrahamic religions, including islam and judaism, have strong cultural and spiritual ties to the river, enunciated through both rituals and scripture.

one vanguard nonprofit, ecopeace middle east, has decided to translate these faith ties to into action in hopes of rehabilitating the jordan river to its biblical grandeur. through their ‘faith-based action for the lower jordan river’ program, ecopeace seeks to connect christians, jews and muslims from israel, palestine and jordan to clean up one of their main sources of freshwater and spiritual connection. and hopefully, cultivate peace among these peoples in the process.

“the inspiration behind the program was to find an approach to engage other stakeholders,” said elizabeth yaari, ecopeace jordan river rehabilitation project organizer. “there is an enormous value in connecting the communication to peoples’ heritage and identity.”

to cultivate this connection and communication, ecopeace is working from the bottom up. the organization developed the jordan river covenant, a document endorsed by local religious leaders outlining a vision of a healthy river, and a collection of sourcebooks demonstrating each religion’s unique connection to the river. in addition, eco peace has led tours and directed events with religious leaders and congregations around the world to extend the scope of the conversation.

“there are thousands of religious tourists each year and they expect to see this jordan river ‘deep and wide.’ instead, they see this tiny river of sludge and it’s just such a shock,” said mira edelstein, ecopeace tel aviv regional jordan river rehabilitation project coordinator.

a history of conflict

because of the region’s arid climate and scarcity of freshwater, the jordan river basin is and always has been a sacred resource for surrounding communities. people have sought to control it, command it and prevent others to access it. people have used it to define borders and split communities. people have used it as a divider.

conflicts over water rights in the region have persisted throughout history, re-emerging in the arab-israeli war of 1948, the jordanian-israeli peace deal, and the syrian civil war. each country was looking to protect their water interests even if it was at the expense of another. it was a method of grab and take shrouded in policy.

“each player has grabbed as much water as they can,” edelstein explained. “there is no conservation, no coordination about who takes how much.”

this legacy of conflict has left the jordan river devastated. all bordering countries have engaged in large-scale water diversion projects to drain the upstream flow of the jordan for personal or commercial use. the downstream tributaries of the jordan are only kept alive today by a steady stream of untreated sewage emanating from jerusalem.

holy waters

like the jordan river, religion is often thought to be a divider. it has been used to distinguish peoples from one another and even as a just cause of violence. however, religion has also forged supportive communities and been a vehicle for connecting these communities together. religion can be a bridge for the jordan river.

“the old and new testament and the quran talk about how important it is for people to be good stewards of this earth that god is lending to us,” edelstein said. “we all need to take responsibility and pass it down to the next generation, and when you point it out this way to a religious community, they can connect so easily.”

in judaism, the river is an embodiment of connection and a symbol of hope, as symbolized in the stories of elijah the prophet and the sons of isaac. in christianity, the river is the ultimate symbol of purity and its water is regarded as the most holy. in islam, the river was a key battleground for islamic expansion and a sacred burial site of close companions to the prophet. for all, the river brings life.

traditions shepherd change

the solution for the jordan river might not be as shiny and hi-tech as some hackers in tel aviv might imagine, but instead a return to traditions already in place. ecopeace aims to bring the reality of the jordan river to the forefront of community discussion and encourage action-based responses to help.

according to yaari, the campaign was very successful in the liberal strains of the three religions, whereas the conservative strains were much harder to tap into and would likely need a strong voice from within the community to promote action. but mainly, ecopeace is just happy they got people talking.

“our biggest success was actually our stakeholder consultation interviews. we planted a seed in communities that weren’t talking about this before,” yaari said. “i’d like to think we initiated the dialogue.”

the overarching goal of ecopeace’s program isn’t to clean up the jordan river, but rather to create a collective culture of peoples who are willing to overcome their differences and work together for the common good.

“we’re trying to show each group that they can benefit from collective action,” edelstein explained. “most of what we are doing is breaking down the conflict-mindset and making people understand that we’re all in this together.”

in a region so concerned with borders, ecopeace is building a bridge.

want to listen from the beginning? catch all of the hacking hunger episodes here: https://www.wfpusa.org/series/hacking-hunger/.